April Blog - Next Season's 'Cheltenham Plus' Service

2/4/24

This is my last monthly blog before the website shuts down from the start of May until restarting towards the end of October so now’s as good a moment as any to let you know my plans for a more streamlined, punchier-in-parts, Jumps Season Service 2024/25 after consultation with a good, few long-standing members for what would be our ninth season together.

Cheltenham 2024

But, first, a quick appraisal of how our Cheltenham Festival went and I’m pleased to say that after a ropey 2023 we had a very good meeting in 2024 showing a 22 points’ profit despite having more than our fair share of non-runners due to injuries, so three very pleasing Cheltenham’s in the last four years taking us up to 149 points level stakes profit since I started the service.

That would be higher still if those figures were to recommended stakes rather than LSP as the sole maximum 2pts selection has won at the last two years following Teahupoo (returned 5/4) recommended at 3/1 earlier in the year. The vast majority of recommendations are to the value of 1pt.

Not having as many early-season bets as usual this season worked well for us concentrating more on ‘Non Runner No Bet’ (NRNB) recommendations and we did particularly well in the handicap chases this season with Unexpected Party (Grand Annual) a 20/1 ante-post pick two weeks before he won and Shakem’upArry (Plate) was available at 10/1 for an on-the-day advice.

All in all, of the 27 races that took place and having had no betting interest in the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle, the recommendations made a profit in 12 of the other 26 contests. I say we had no betting interest in the Gallagher but that race was still part of the most frustrating element of the week having recommended a NRNB double on Ballyburn (Supreme) and Slade Steel (Gallagher) at 12/1 after the Dublin Racing Festival only for them to win the opposite race so stakes were returned. Very hard to think that they wouldn’t have won the other race if they were kept apart but at least we got involved in Slade Steel on the day.  

The Jumps Season Service 2024/25

So, onto next season’s Jumps Season Service and here are my initial thoughts which will be streamlined into basically a 'Cheltenham Plus' Service.

What I finally decide on won’t be too different from my thoughts below but might be tinkered with a little. Members will receive an invitation to resubscribe in the autumn with what I eventually decide on, so your feedback is welcomed for me to chew things over during the next six months.

I found it more exhausting and mentally draining than usual this year (I am not getting any younger) as it takes a big effort especially between the intensive period from Boxing Day through to the end of Cheltenham where the workload is relentless, so some elements are going to be shortened or eradicated. It’s also not been great on my eyes with so much screenwork over the last couple of years. Therefore, I hope you agree that going forward, The Jumps Season Service should be more about quality than quantity.

However, the Cheltenham Festival coverage for next season will remain unaffected (except for being moved to Thursday at 7pm for reasons I will explain below) as from reading the website analytics on number of page hits and time spent reading the copy, I can see that it is by far and away the most popular column and why I believe most members keep returning year on year. So that element is likely to be even be expanded a little to make up for cutting back on elements of the website elsewhere.

For example, one addition is that I will introduce a weekly Grand National update at the bottom of each Cheltenham column to follow the build-up to the world’s greatest steeplechase.

I am also considering giving every race its own header down the right-hand side of the menu in addition to the weekly column. Therefore, if you want to see how any one race is developing week by week, you can simply click on the relevant race and scroll down through all the weekly updates on it to follow that particular race’s journey.

Also potentially new for the Cheltenham Service next season is reporting back from an Irish Preview Evenings Tour for a few days during the fortnight before Cheltenham ahead of embarking on the British Tour as usual the following week. Those with long memories will recall I did something similar for Weatherbys many years ago for a good, few seasons giving everyone’s view on the panel on every race as close to word for word as I could, which was a killer to keep up with, then write it up the next morning and head off to the next event in time and repeat.

Therefore, if I commit to it, then this would just be a highlights package of each preview evening only listing anything that was said that made my ears prick up. Attending a preview evening last year certainly helped me to find Unexpected Party (balloted out in 2023) this year, even if it was 12 months later! It would also mean potentially daily copy from two weeks before the Festival rather than the current eight days.

Regards the cutting-back of copy, I will be reducing the weekend Race Previews to just the final summaries rather than lengthy full-blown previews and only for the very best handful of races rather than 12-15 races a weekend featuring loads of short-priced favs which are usually no-bet races. So, like for when I was ill for one week this winter. However, they would be slightly longer final summaries than is currently the case so it would be a far more punchy weekend preview - cutting to the chase, basically. From feedback I know that quite a lot of members skim read that column anyway and head straight to the final summaries for any recommendations.

I will also move my weekend racing thoughts from Friday afternoon to Thursday evening so the much-shortened version will appear at the end of the new slot for the weekly Cheltenham column (Thursday 7pm) as part of an ‘Any Other Business’ section.

We will know the Saturday declarations by then so I can just give any bet recommendations and my thinking behind them rather than discussing virtually every horse for most races which takes me, on average, 6-8 hours to put together. It’s anywhere between 12-15 hrs for the weekly Cheltenham columns just in case you were wondering so the extra two days will also help putting that 10,000+ worder most weeks together.

In that same Cheltenham (Grand National and shortened Weekend Racing) Thursday column, as part of the added-on ‘Any Other Business’ section I would also include a line or two about any sporting events coming up at the weekend (and Andy with his NFL thoughts) that catch my eye where I can find a betting opportunity rather than a week in advance as is currently the case in the General Sports column on Sundays. Much closer to the event has to be a good idea plus I would also include any longer-term ante-post racing bets, but only in weeks when I think its right to do so.

Plus include Eurovision updates of course in the AOB section in 2025. Of course, of course, of course! We’re not looking in bad shape at all with Switzerland at 16/1+ from a few weeks back as they are now a best-priced 3/1 favourite and 5/2 in places.

As such, by moving these elements to what will effectively be a ‘Cheltenham Plus’ service on Thursdays, there would be no requirement to continue with the Ante Post Focus (Weds) and General Sports (Sun) columns as the best of which would already be incorporated into Thursday’s column but Andy Richmond’s Beating The Bias (Mondays), Big Race Trends and Thought Of The Day would continue as normal.

I can still cover big ante-post races further down the road in the new Thursday column but only when I feel the urge to do so. I just no longer see the point of a dedicated Weds ante-post column looking at the big weekend race(s) less than 24 hrs before the decs come through anymore as (a) there is little edge on prices being so close to decs time and (b) especially now that bookmakers offer extra places from the declarations stage onwards. This was fine when I first started that column eight years ago when it was still 24hr decs back then rather than the now 48hrs and bookmakers weren’t offering extended places back then either.

Regards midweek racing, I will obviously keep all three days of Aintree but Punchestown and Christmas week would be incorporated into the ante-post section of the Thursday column the week beforehand. It will be nice to spend Christmas with family for the first time in a decade.

So overall, no reduction in number of recommendatrions as such, just less waffle in getting to the point in certain cases.

April 2024

Plenty to look forward to this month with Aintree, The Masters and World Snooker Championship on the horizon as well as the football season building to a climax where the ante-post and in-running recommendations are looking in good shape overall as highlighted in the penultimate General Sports column.

All 21 races for Big Race Trends were uploaded for Aintree at the weekend and in tomorrow’s Ante Post Focus I will be touching on seven of those races. Daily previews will be uploaded on the morning before each day’s racing.

I’ll take a look at The Masters in this coming Sunday’s General Sports column and I have to say it looks wide open this year. Scottie Scheffler has to be favourite on his current form and world rankings but suspect you’ll get bigger than the current 4/1 on him nearer the time and certainly the longer you wait the better place terms will be on offer.

I will give my views on the World Snooker Championship which begins on April 20^th with Ronnie O’Sullivan not only trying to win the Triple Crown after he won the UK Championship and Masters despite not being on his A-Game for either but also attempting to overhaul Stephen Hendry and win it for a record eighth time, in the modern era anyway.

This is something that he is desperate to achieve even if he says otherwise just like Paul Nicholls is about overtaking his huge rival, Martin Pipe, who he trials by only one (15-14). It made me smile when Nicholls said the main aim this year after being overtaken by Dan Skelton in the Jumps Trainers’ Championship race after Cheltenham was to make Harry Cobden champion jockey! I suspect he has the fire power to achieve both goals in what will add an extra element to the final four weeks of the season. Nicholls is 2/5 with Skelton at 5/2 and Mullins at 10/1, though he would have to win the Grand National to consider if he wants to go all out for it in the final fortnight.

A note that Andy Richmond will be on the other side of the world for a couple of weeks after Aintree so it will just be one or two more Beating The Bias columns from him this month.

I’ll end the blog by thanking you for all reading over the last six months or so and hopefully come mid-May we can be planning our trip to Zurich in May 2025 if Nemo can do the business for Switzerland in Eurovision!